IDC released their latest headset predictions today, and it’s a bit of a mixed bag. We saw a 10 percent bump in augmented and virtual reality headset shipments last year — but they’re predicting a 12 percent drop for 2025.
Do the IDC numbers mean anything? Yes, they do. IDC — International Data Corp. — is the most reputable company out there for this kind of data, and they base in on actual shipment numbers.
Apparently, some big names are hitting the pause button on new releases. It feels like all the money and buzz in tech right now is going straight to generative AI. I write about AI at my day job, and this is literally all that anyone is talking about.
IDC still thinks we’ll see a rebound in 2026. But to me, it kind of feels like the VR headset hype cycle peaked a while back, and there’s a lot more stuff left to do with AI as it continues to evolve before we can get back to focusing on VR.
Plus, the form factor still isn’t there. For VR and AR to go mainstream, the glasses need to be the size of, say, wrap-around sunglasses. Today’s headsets are too heavy, too clumsy, too hot, and too nausea-inducing for extended use. I have a feeling that VR and AR will get their turn when smart glasses finally replace phones. That means that the screens have to get better, the electronics have to get smaller, and the batteries have to get lighter. We still have a ways to go on all those fronts.
Meanwhile, with the headsets we’ve got today, Meta’s still holding onto a huge chunk of the market. Apple’s $3,500 Vision Pro is still pushing the boundaries, but reports are saying Apple’s slowing down production. It’s a pricey piece of kit, and maybe people aren’t ready to drop that kind of cash on something that still feels a bit…experimental.
Last year, Meta accounted for 75 percent of headset sales, followed by Apple at 5.2 percent, Sony with 4.3 percent, ByteDance with 4.1 percent and XREAL rounding out the top five with 3.3 percent share. Among the top five only Meta and XREAL recorded year-over-year growth, IDC says.
There’s also a new player in this space. Samsung’s upcoming Android XR headset, Project Moohan, is getting attention for its Vision Pro-like features — and because it may have an even better display. But that could mean the headset could cost over $1,000, and people probably aren’t ready to spend that much on a headset that they don’t need and is still awkward to use. Samsung itself hasn’t released a lot of details yet, other than a basic overview.
You can check out Marques Brownlee’s review of Samsung’s new headset in the video below:
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